中国地区经济周期来源及其分解:基于市场成长的视角

基于转轨时期"市场成长"背景,将我国的经济周期分为体制性波动和市场性波动两个方面。进一步,根据改进的Koren和Tenreyro分解方法将我国的地区经济周期分为体制性波动、市场性波动和其他波动三个方面。实证研究结果表明:地区经济周期呈现出市场性波动和其他波动不断增强,体制性波动不断减弱的长期趋势;东部地区的市场性波动和其他波动要显著大于中西部地区的市场性波动,中西部地区的体制性波动要显著大于东部地区的体制性波动。进一步的研究结果表明市场化程度是我国地区经济周期差异化的重要原因,而稳步的区域市场化推进策略,培育完善、健全的全国统一市场机制是实现我国经济周期"高位收敛"的必由之路。

The Elements and Decomposition of Regional Economical Cycle in China:from the Perspective of Market Growth

Based on the market growth context during the transition period,this paper divides China’s economical cycle into two: mechanism fluctuation and market fluctuation.Moreover,according to the improved Koren and Tenreyro decomposition method,it further divides China’s regional economical cycle into three aspects: mechanism fluctuation,market fluctuation and other fluctuation.The results of the empirical study show that the regional economical cycle presents a long term trend of strengthening market fluctuation and other fluctuation and dwindling mechanism fluctuation;the market fluctuation and other fluctuation in the eastern region is more obvious than that in the central and western regions,while the mechanism fluctuation in the central and western regions is more obvious than that in the eastern region.The results of further study show that the extent of market is one of the most important reasons that lead to the differentiation in the regional economical cycle,while the route we must take to realize the high level convergence of China’s economical cycle is to adopt a strategy of steady regional market development and to cultivate an improved and sound national unified market mechanism.