A technique for evaluating alternative population forecasts

The authors utilize third, fourth, and fifth order polynomials to illustrate a procedure for evaluating alternative population forecasts. Population for 1930–1970 and projections for 1970 and 1980 for the State of Maryland and its five major regions are fitted to polynomials and utilized for extrapolation of existing trends. The authors suggest that the use of a zero net migration assumption as a baseline permits policymakers to identify the range of growth subject to control, and that the use of derivatives can assist in the interpretation of maxima and minima of these growth paths. Additional research is suggested in areas of population density analysis and in other policy applications of this methodology.