信息化对经济增长贡献的时空变化研究

由于历史、地域、经济发展等因素不同,信息化的弹性系数并不是一成不变的。采用状态空间模型、面板数据、分位数回归系统分析信息化对经济增长贡献的动态变化,结果显示:从信息化贡献的历史演变看,中国改革开放初期的10多年,由于生产率悖论,信息化对经济增长贡献为负,从1993年开始为正;东部、中部、西部地区信息化弹性系数相差不大;经济欠发达地区信息化的弹性系数大于经济发达地区,经济中等发达地区信息化的弹性系数最低,信息化的弹性系数呈U型曲线,加快经济欠发达地区信息化建设有助于缩小地区经济差距;信息化的弹性系数总体上小于资本和劳动力,这与中国目前的经济结构和产业结构是相符的。

Study on Contribution of Informatization to Economy Growth and Its Disparity

The elastic ratio of informatization to economy isn't stable because of the history,area and economy development.This paper analyzes the contribution of informatization to economy based on state space model,panel data and quantile regression.The results show the elastic ratio of informatization to economy growth is negative at the beginning of reform and open because of productivity paradox.The disparity of east,middle and west areas is small.The elastic ratio of undeveloped area is bigger than developed area.The elastic ratio of middle developed area is the lowest which curve is just like U.The elastic ratio of informatization is smaller than invest and labor.To accelerate informatization may dwindle area economy disparity.