河北省经济增长与碳排放的脱钩研究

河北省正处于工业化、城镇化推进的关键时期,研究河北省经济增长与碳排放的关系问题,对于河北省经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。建立了基于协整检验的脱钩分析系统,利用Tapio脱钩模型研究了河北省1990年—2011年经济增长与碳排放的脱钩关系,并引入能源消费作为中间变量进行因果链的分解,分析了河北省经济增长与碳排放脱钩状态变化的原因。研究结果表明：河北省2000年经济增长与碳排放的脱钩状态为扩张负脱钩,2001年—2003年的脱钩状态为增长连结,其他的年份都呈现出了弱脱钩的状态。河北省经济增长与碳排放的弱脱钩状态主要是因为河北省产业结构的优化和能源效率的不断提高,而与减排并没有多大关系。

Study on the Decoupling of Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions in Hebei

Hebei is in the key period of industrialization and urbanization,so studying the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in Hebei is significant for its sustainable development of economy. This paper establishes the decoupling analysis system based on cointegration test. Tapio decoupling model is used to study the decoupling relationship of economic growth and carbon emissions from 1990 to 2011. In order to analyze the cause of the decoupling,this paper introduces energy consumption as the intermediate variable of the causal chain decomposition. The results show that the decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions is expansion negative decoupling in 2000,the decoupling state is growth links in 2001-2003,and a weak decoupling state exists in other years. The weak decoupling state is mainly caused by the optimization of industrial structure and the continuous improvement of energy efficiency. there is no obvious relation with emissions reducing.