Soviet society: Current trends and forecast scenarios |
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Authors: | Stanislav I. Simanovsky and Igor G. Ushkalov |
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Affiliation: | Dr Ushkalov and Dr Simanovsky are at the Institute of International Economic and Political Studies, USSR Academy of Sciences, Novocheremushkinskaja str. 46, Moscow 117418, USSR |
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Abstract: | As perestroika drives the USSR towards free market socialism, the country's socioeconomic development depends on a number of factors that are only now taking shape. The transition is inconsistent and painful because there is no clear concept of the overall process. In order to overcome current difficulties the Soviet leadership must adopt a coherent transitional model. This article looks at the underlying trends of the current situation in the USSR and presents three scenarios for the development of Soviet society. Focusing on the dynamics of internal factors, the scenarios differ in terms of social orientation, degree of radicalism, approach to problems and proposed relationship between central power and the republics and regions. The extent of political support for each scenario is examined, and their potential for realization is assessed. |
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