| 新兴技术管理的“评-研-商”模型及其风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 曹勇,胡光灿,邢燕菊.新兴技术管理的“评-研-商”模型及其风险评估[J].技术经济,2009,28(12):17-21. |
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| 作者姓名： | 曹勇 胡光灿 邢燕菊 |
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| 作者单位： | 华中科技大学,管理学院,武汉,430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社科基金项目,教育部留学回国科研启动基金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文将新兴技术管理分为技术评估、技术研发和技术产品商业化三个阶段,建立了"评-研-商"阶段模型,并从企业内部研发和外部市场两方面对各阶段可能存在的风险因素进行了分析。针对传统的现金流折现法在评估新兴技术研发推广项目风险方面的不足,本文引用了实物期权方法中的盖斯克模型对新兴技术项目管理进行风险评估。
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| 关 键 词： | 新兴技术 “评-研-商”阶段模型 风险评估 实物期权 盖斯克模型 |
-Evaluation-Research-Commercialization' Model of Emerging Technology Management and Its Risk Evaluation |
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| Cao Yong,Hu Guangcan,Xing Yanju.-Evaluation-Research-Commercialization' Model of Emerging Technology Management and Its Risk Evaluation[J].Technology Economics,2009,28(12):17-21. |
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| Authors: | Cao Yong Hu Guangcan Xing Yanju |
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| Institution: | (School of Management, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074 ,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper divides the management of emcrging technology into three stages, namely technology evaluation, technology R＆D and technology commercialization,and establishes an ＇evaluation research commercialization＂ model, and analyzes the risk factors existing likely in each stage irom two aapects of enterprisers internal R＆D and external market. And it discusses the flaws of traditional Discounted Cash Flow in evaluating the risk of emerging technology project, and uses Geske model origined from the real option theory to evaluate the risk of emerging technology pruject managemet. |
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| Keywords: | emerging technology evaluation research commercialization model risk evaluation real option Geske model |
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