中国经济的体制困境与波动形成:一个理论框架及其检验

本文挖掘中国经济波动的体制困境,试图为中国的经济波动勾勒出一个理论框架。目前的经济体制是波动形成的来源,经济体制中信贷—投资—增长—通胀四个互相契合的作用机制使得经济发展陷入体制困境当中,呈现出活—乱—收—死的形态。利用1978—2007年经济增长率、固定资产投资增长率、年末贷款余额增长率和消费者价格指数的年度数据,通过设置单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,本文验证了这一理论。我们的理论表明,中国的经济波动内生于其特殊的经济运作体制,因而也就面临两难处境。摆脱这一困境的出路在于体制变革和经济增长方式的转变。

China's Institutional Predicament and Economic Fluctuation: A Theoretical Framework and Verification

This paper investigates China's institutional predicament and economic fluctuation,we set up a theoretical framework for China's economic fluctuation.We pointed out the current economic system are the source of China's economic fluctuation,four mechanisms-credit-investing-growth-inflation fit together makes the plight of economic development into a system which,showing a live-chaos-land-Die forms.Using(1978-2007)annual data of economic growth rate,fixed-asset investment growth rate,loans growth rate and con...