基于灰色马尔科夫模型的农民收入质与量预测

本文以肥西县为样本,利用统计数据建立了灰色马尔科夫预测模型,通过比对预测信息与实际信息差距,建立信息反馈机制,分别对肥西县农民收入的数量和质量进行了为期5年的计算。模型建立与应用的过程,特别是进行的相关验证说明,应用该模型开展肥西及类似地区农民收入的预测是可行的。而农民人均纯收入将在数量上五年倍增、质量上大幅度提高的预测结论,又是与向好的宏观发展环境相符的。

The Prediction of Peasants' Quantity and Quality of Income Based on the Grey - Markov Model

Taking Feixi as a sample,using statistical data to set up the Grey-Markov forecast model,and by comparing the gap between the forecasting information and the actual information,this paper sets up information feedback mechanism,which is used to forecast respectively the quantity and quality of Feixi peasants′ income for five years.The process of model establishing and application,especially relative illustration forecast the model in peasants′ income of Feixi and similar regions is feasible.The conclusion shows that peasants′ per capita net income will be multiplied in the number while the quality will be greatly improved as well in the next five years.This matches to the good macro developmental environment.