目标价格补贴政策对棉花生产的影响分析基于PSM-DID的实证研究

目的 目标价格补贴政策是改革农产品价格形成机制的重要举措，对于优化我国农业供给结构具有重要的意义。方法 为了评估临时收储制改为目标价格补贴政策对新疆棉花生产的影响，文章基于2011—2018年新疆和其他棉花主产区县级棉花生产相关数据，运用双重差分倾向得分法（PSM-DID）分析了目标价格补贴政策对新疆棉花的种植面积和产量的总体影响、动态效应和区域效应。结果 目标价格补贴政策对调控国内棉花供给起着重要作用；该政策总体上促进了新疆棉花产业发展，棉花面积和产量显著提高；从政策的动态效应来看，目标价格政策调整为三年一定的方案对棉花生产的促进作用显著大于试点期一年一定的效应；此外，目标价格补贴政策对南疆和北疆的影响效应存在差异，对南疆棉花生产的促进效果更显著。结论 在此基础上，结合我国缺乏棉花定价权，目标价格补贴政策可能导致国家财政负担过重，且容易触及WTO黄箱补贴的限制等问题，该文提出了进一步完善目标价格补贴政策，逐步向脱钩的补贴方式过渡，并积极探索财政补贴与市场补偿相结合的补贴机制等相关建议。

ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF TARGET PRICE SUBSIDY POLICY ON COTTON PRODUCTIONBASED ON PSM-DID METHOD

Target-price subsidy policy is an important measure to reform the price formation mechanism for agricultural product. Meanwhile it is of great significance to optimize the agricultural supply structure of China. This paper used PSM-DID methodology to analyze the overall impact of the target-price subsidy policy on cotton production in Xinjiang. It also evaluated the dynamic and regional effects of this policy based upon the collected data of county-level cotton production in Xinjiang and other major cotton producing areas from 2011 to 2018. Our analysis provided the following results. Firstly, the target-price subsidy policy had become an effective tool to regulate the domestic cotton supply. The policy had greatly promoted the development of cotton industry in Xinjiang by not only increasing the cotton production area but also generating better cotton output. Secondly, dynamic effect of this policy showed that adjusting the policy from one-year base to three-year base significantly improved the cotton production efficiency. Finally, the regional effect of this policy showed great differences in regional aspects, where the acceleration was clearly greater in Southern Xinjiang based upon the above-mentioned findings. In summary, combining with the reality that currently China lacks the pricing power for cotton, target-price subsidy policy on cotton is very likely to touch the limitations of WTO yellow box subsidy while aggravating the national financial burden. So, this paper puts forward some suggestions, such as perfecting the subsidy policy of target price further, transferring to the decoupled payments gradually, and exploring the subsidy mechanism of combining fiscal subsidy with market compensation actively.