黄河流域水资源利用效率与产业结构升级的空间协调发展研究

黄河流域在水资源利用效率与产业结构升级领域偏弱,促进两者空间协调发展对黄河流域高质量发展具有重要意义。在构建黄河流域水资源利用效率与产业结构升级指标的基础上,通过耦合协调度模型对黄河流域9省区2004—2018年水资源利用效率与产业结构升级双系统进行协调发展分析,并运用全局莫兰指数揭示黄河流域双系统协调发展的空间特征。研究表明:黄河流域水资源利用效率总体平稳,在时序上随经济周期的变化有所波动,产业结构升级指标呈较为稳定的增长趋势,两系统均有显著空间差异性。从总体来看,黄河流域协调情况从2004年的轻度失调衰退阶段提升至2018年的良好协调发展阶段;从省域角度来看,2012年前各省区协调性持续向好,2012年后增长趋势放缓且部分产业结构偏重的省区协调性降低;空间集聚情况上,2009年前耦合协调度有较为明显的弱自相关特征,2009年后自相关不显著。

Spatially coordinated development of water resource utilization efficiency and industrial structure upgrading in Yellow River Basin

The fields of water resource utilization efficiency and industrial structure upgrading in the Yellow River Basin are weak, and promoting their spatially coordinated development is of great significance to its high-quality development. Based on the establishment of the indices of water resource utilization efficiency and industrial structure upgrading in the Yellow River Basin, the coupling coordination degree model is used to analyze the coordinated development of water resource utilization efficiency and industrial structure upgrading in 9 provinces and regions of the Yellow River Basin from 2004 to 2018. Then the spatial characteristics of the coordinated development of the two systems are revealed by using the global Moran index. The research shows that the overall utilization efficiency of water resources is stable, and fluctuates with the change of economic cycle in time sequence. The industrial structure upgrading index has a relatively stable growth trend. The two systems both have significant spatial differences. In general, the coordination of the Yellow River Basin has improved from the mild imbalance recession stage in 2004 to the harmoniously coordinated development stage in 2018. From the provincial perspective, the coordination of provinces keeps improving before 2012, and the growth trend slows down after 2012 and some provinces with heavy industrial structure decrease in coordination degree. In terms of spatial agglomeration, the coupling coordination degree before 2010 has obvious weak autocorrelation characteristics, while the autocorrelation is not significant after 2010. Finally, some suggestions are put forward based on the research conclusions and development trends so as to promote the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.