东亚双边进口贸易流量与潜力:基于贸易引力模型的实证研究

本文利用东亚10个主要经济体1995-2004年的面板数据,建立东亚贸易引力模型,对东亚进口贸易流量的影响因素和潜力进行研究。研究显示,国家经济规模、中国-东盟自由贸易区、东盟自由贸易区、进口国制度、国际直接投资、国家间的经济水平差距和地理距离是东亚双边进口贸易流量的主要影响因素。中国香港、泰国、日本和印度尼西亚对东亚的进口潜力较大,中国、马来西亚、菲律宾和新加坡对东亚的进口潜力较小。加强东亚区域内最终产品市场和区域贸易合作的发展、推进东亚各经济体的制度改革和调整、积极合理地引进国际直接投资、加强物流建设与合作,应成为东亚各经济体未来重要的政策取向。

Bilateral Import Trade Flows and Trade Potentialities of East Asia: Empirical Study by Trade Gravity Model

This paper applies the expanded trade gravity model to study the influencing factors and potentialities of bilateral import trade flows in East Asia.The data set is a panel for the years 1995-2004.The results show that the development of intra-regional import in East Asia is mainly related to the following factors:economic scale,ACFTA,AFTA,economic institutions,FDI,economic development level and distance.The import potentialities of China Hong Kong,Thailand,Japan and Indonesia to East Asia economies would be relatively great,and the import potentialities of China,Malaysia,Philippines and Singapore to East Asia economies would be relatively little.The following efforts on improving intra-regional import in East Asia should be put forth,the development of final product market and regional economic cooperation organization in East Asia,the introducing of FDI,the improvement of logistics construction.