Taylor Rules for the ECB using Expectations Data* |
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| Authors: | Janko Gorter Jan Jacobs Jakob De Haan |
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| Institution: | 1. De Nederlandsche Bank, NL‐1000 AB Amsterdam, The Netherlands jankogorter@hotmail.com;2. University of Groningen, NL‐9700 AV Groningen, The Netherlands j.p.a.m.jacobs@rug.nl;3. University of Groningen, NL‐9700 AV Groningen, The Netherlands jakob.de.haan@rug.nl |
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| Abstract: | We estimate Taylor rules for the euro area using Consensus Economics data for expected inflation and output growth, and compare these estimates with more conventional specifications in which actual outcomes are used. We find that the ECB takes expected inflation and expected output growth into account in setting interest rates, while in the more conventional model specification, the coefficient of realized inflation is not significantly different from zero. |
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| Keywords: | Taylor rule ECB real‐time data policy inertia serial correlation C22 E52 |
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