工业用水量测算方法及应用

工业用水总量测算是我国实行最严格水资源管理制度的一项重要工作。为了利用现有水利统计成果对工业用水总量进行测算,文章选取了基于历史数据的预测方法和计量结合抽样的统计方法测算工业用水量,提出了"以计量结合抽样法为主,趋势外推法进行对比校核"的工业用水量测算方法。结果表明:对10万m~3以上规模的工业采用全样本计量,对规模以下的工业按一定比例进行抽样计量,测算值的相对误差可控制在10%左右。对于技术和统计投入受限的省份,可利用2011年水利普查数据和其他历史数据,适当采用趋势外推法对原有数据进行修正。

Calculating method for amount of industrial water use and its application

Calculating the amount of industrial water use is an important task for China to implement the strictest water resources management system. In order to use the existing results of water statistics to calculate the amount of industrial water use, the forecasting methods based on the historical data and the statistical methods combining with sampling are employed to calculate the amount of industrial water use, and then a calculating method is proposed, which is based on the measurements combining with sampling and checked by the trend extrapolation method. The results show that the relative error of the predicted value is less than 10% for the industrial water use scale more than 100 thousand m³through full sampling measurements and that less than 100 thousand m³ through proportional sampling. For the provinces with low technology and insufficient statistics, the census data of water resources in 2011 and other historical data can be used, and the original data should be modified by the trend extrapolation method.