Patronage and ideology in electoral behavior: Evidence from Egypt's first presidential elections |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Finance, Goethe University Frankfurt, Grueneburgplatz 1, 60323 Frankfurt am Main, Germany;2. Department of Economics, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK;3. CFS, Frankfurt am Main, Germany;1. Central European University, School of Public Policy, Nádor utca 9, 1051 Budapest, Hungary;2. Université de Cergy-Pontoise, Department of Economics (THEMA), 33 Boulevard du Port, 95011 Cergy-Pontoise Cedex, France;1. Department of Economics, Hanken School of Economics, PO Box 479, Fi-00101 Helsinki, Finland;2. SITE, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm, Sweden;3. Ifo Institute, Poschingerstr. 5, 81679 Munich, Germany;4. Department of Economics, University of Munich, Munich, Germany;5. CESifo, Germany;6. IZA, Germany |
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| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of patronage and ideology on voter behavior and election outcomes. Egypt's first free presidential elections represent a good case study to answer the question whether private gain outweighs ideology in voter behavior on a broader level. First, we combine election results with household surveys and national statistics to estimate the impact of patronage (measured by public employment) on voting for the pre-revolution regime candidate. Second, using results of the first round of elections as a proxy for ideology, we test for the effect of ideological preferences on voting behavior. Additionally, we test for candidates' ability to mobilize supporters. Our results suggest that patronage has a stronger effect than secularist ideology but a weaker effect than pro-change ideology. Results show that the number of public sector and government employees in each electoral district has a positive impact on participation rates. |
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