市场时机效应难以对资本结构产生持久性影响的原因——基于债务成本视角的实证研究

提出投资者情绪影响资本结构选择的一条渠道,即价格偏离会造成企业债权人预期变化,进而影响债务成本、融资约束,最终改变经理人的融资决策。应用我国上市公司1999—2008年的财务数据进行横截面实证检验。结果表明:市场情绪在很大程度影响上市公司的债务融资成本;在投资者非理性假设下,考虑市场情绪对债务成本的影响并结合市场时机理论才能解释上市公司的长期资本结构选择的经验数据。

Reason Why Market Timing Effect Have Few Persistent Influence on Capital Structure:An Empirical Study From on Perspective of Debt Cost

This paper puts forward one channel through which investor′s sentiment affects the choicing of capital structure,that is price deviation would influence creditor′s expectation,and then influence the cost of debt and financing constraints,and finally influence manager′s financing decision.Through the empirical test based on the financial data of listed companies in China during 1999-2008,it draws the following conclusions： investor′s sentiment considerably affects the cost of debt of listed companies;in the assumption that investors are not rational,through combining the influence of investor′s sentiment on debt cost with the market timing theory,the experienced data of long-term capital structure decision of listed companies can be explained.