Need vs. opportunity recognition in household car replacements

It is hypothesized that an intention to replace the owned car initiated by need recognition (a decrease in perceived current quality level of the old car) or opportunity recognition (an increase in aspired quality level of the new car) will result in purchases of different new cars. A sample of 1083 car owners were interviewed over telephone every fourth month during 2.5 years. The results showed that replacement intentions were not affected by how the intention was formed but that the choice of model year of the new car was. A younger car was chosen if the aspired quality level increased faster across interview waves than the current quality level decreased, and an older car was chosen if the current quality level decreased faster than the aspired quality level increased. As a consequence, if replacement intentions are the result of opportunity recognition, rejuvenation of the car fleet will be faster than if replacement intentions are the result of need recognition.