日本旅华需求影响因素分析与模型构建

日本一直都是中国入境旅游市场的重要客源国,因此,研究日本旅华需求特征及其影响因素有着重要的现实意义。首先探讨了日本旅华市场需求的几个阶段：起步阶段、发展阶段、成熟阶段。在此基础上,以1991-2008年《中国统计年鉴》和《日本统计年鉴》为依据,通过SPSS软件,从客源国的需求角度构建了日本旅华需求影响因素的计量经济模型,结果表明：日本经济发展水平、日元兑人民币的相对值、中国居民消费价格指数、日本居民消费价格指数对日本旅华需求有着重要影响,前两种因素起着正相关作用,后两种起着负相关作用;东南亚金融危机和SARS事件由于没有通过t检验,被回归模型剔除,表明突发事件对日本旅华需求不会产生长期影响。最后,从目的国的供给角度出发,提出了日本旅华需求开发的相应对策。

Analysis of Influencing Factors and its Constructing Model of Japan Tourism Demand for China

Japan has been one of the most important original tourism countries in China＇s inbound market,and so,it has important significance to research characteristics and influencing factors of Japan tourism demand for China. In view of development processing of Japan tourism demand for China,it is divided into three phases： formation phases,development phases and maturity phases. And then according to data from China statistics year books and Japan statistics year books of 1991-2008,based on demand angle of view of original country,quantitative model about influencing factors of tourism demand is constructed by using SPSS tool. Results indicate that such factors as economic development level in Japan,ratio of Yen exchanging Renminbi has a significantly positive correlation with Japan tourism demand for China,and consumer price index of China and Japan has a significantly negative correlation with it; and additional two variables such as finance crisis of the southeast Asia,SARS event don＇t enter regression equation for insignificant ＂t＂ test,and emergencies don＇t bring effects of long period to Japan tourism demand. Finally,based on supply angle of view of tourism destination,some measures about exploiting Japan tourism demand for China are put forward.