中国入境旅游与民航客运关系及城市分布的统计分析

利用1990-2006年外国人入境客流量、国际民航客运量、国际航线数的时间序列数据以及26个热点城市外国人入境客流量、民航客运量、航线条数等截面数据,对外国人入境客流量及入境后在各城市的分布与民航客运的关系进行了定量分析。结果发现：（1）时间序列数据显示,国外入境客流量和国际航线数、民航客运量呈直线相关,其中,国际航线的边际影响系数为8.47,国际航空客运量的边际影响系数为1.56;（2）截面数据表明,国外入境旅游客流量与和国际国内航线数、民航客运量呈线性相关,航线的边际影响系数为2.68,民航客运量的边际弹性系数为0.08;（3）由于入境后旅游者在各城市采用不同的交通方式,依据入境客流量统计值与民航客运量模型值的偏差,将26个城市划分为4种航空依赖类型。

A Statistic Analysis of Relationship Between Inbound Tourists and Passenger Traffic of Civil Aviation and Its Urban Distribution

The time series data of inbound tourists,the passenger traffic of international civil aviation and international routes of 1990-2006,as well as the cross section data of inbound tourists,the passenger traffic of civil aviation and routes of 26 cities are used to analyze the relationship between inbound tourists and their urban distribution and the passenger traffic of civil aviation.The results show that：（1） Time-series data shows that inbound tourist is straight line related to international routes and passenger traffic of civil aviation, the international routes＇ coefficient of marginal impact is 8.47,and the international passenger traffic of civil aviation＇ coefficient of marginal impact is 1.56;（2） Section data shows that inbound tourist is straight line related to routes and passenger traffic of civil aviation,the routes＇ coefficient of marginal impact is 2.68,and the passenger traffic of civil aviation＇ coefficient of marginal impact is 0.08;（3） Tourists take different kind of transportation in different cities after being inbound,according to the deviation between statistical number and the simulate number of inbound tourists,26 cities are divided into four aviation-dependent types.This study provides a reference for disposing and arranging the civil aviation.