Intra-regional trade and business cycles in Southeast Asia |
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Authors: | John Thornton Alessandro Goglio |
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Institution: | (1) High Institute of Economics and Management, Technical Univeristy of Lisbon, Rua Miguel L?pi, 20, 1249-078 Lisbon, Portugal |
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Abstract: | Conclusion In this note we considered the relationship between trade integration and the cross-country correlation of business cycle
activity in southeast Asia. We found a positive and significant relationship between the degree of bilateral trade intensity
and the cross-country bilateral correlation of business activity over the period 1986–1996, a period when trade integration
was proceeding rapidly. Thus, the Frankel and Rose (1997) finding that more trade integration between industrialized countries
tends to result in more highly synchronized business cycles, appears to be robust to a sample of countries which have diverse
income levels and economic structures and are likely to have less bilateral intraindustry trade. |
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