“两岸三通”对福建经济的影响与对策研究——基于l998--2009年数据的分析

文章首先基于新贸易理论解释两岸贸易的发展趋势,处于相同发达程度的国家或地区贸易同样发展迅速,即＂两岸三通＂的完全开放是大势所趋,会带来规模报酬递增;其次,截取1998-2009数据,期间覆盖＂两岸三通＂前后过程,定义经济水平变量与各贸易变量,在数据分析基础上建立福建与台湾经济水平与贸易水平的模型,得出变量间的关系方程式为研究两岸未来政策提供定量的依据。研究结果表明,第一,福建经济总量受两岸贸易影响比大陆整体经济总量受两岸贸易影响来得更大、更显著;第二,福建经济总量与台湾对福建投资总额呈现S型曲线或倒U型曲线,表明福建在把握台湾的投资上作用效果并不显著,应制定更多的外商投资政策与激励措施,促进外资投资更好更快地转化为生产力。文章最后针对问题给出几点对策建议。

Impact and Countermeasure of "Cross-Strait Three Direct Links" on Fujian Economic -- Based on Time Series Data of 1998 -2009

Abstract: This article consists of two parts. Firstly, we explain the development trend of cross -strait trade based on new trade theory. Complete open of "Cross- Strait Three Direct Links" is a general trend. It will bring increasing returns to scale. Secondly, we apply the data from 1998 to 2009 which covered the prior and later process of "Three Direct Links'", to construct the econometric model to analyze the relationship between Fujian and Taiwan's economic level and Fujian and Taiwan's trade. The results show that Fujian's total economy is more affected by the cross-strait trade than the mainland, and the S- shaped curve or U- shaped curve (describing the effect of the investment of Taiwan to Fujian to Fujian's total economy) indicates that the investment grasping effect of Fujian is not significant Fujian should make more policies and incentives to promote the investment of Taiwan transform into productivity better and faster. Finally, countermeasures are presented according to the situation.