国有商业银行体系脆弱性的实证分析和政策建议

银行体系的脆弱性是事关一国金融发展和金融安全的重要课题.本文以我国国有商业银行体系脆弱性问题为研究对象,在理论分析的基础上运用Logit模型对影响国有商业银行经营稳健性的宏、微观因素进行实证检验,得出以下结论:(1)宏观经济因素对国有商业银行体系脆弱性的影响比微观因素显著;(2)宏微观因素间具有一定的互补性.在实证分析的基础上,本文就如何有效控制我国国有商业银行体系的脆弱性提出相应的政策建议,包括:保持适度经济增长、加快国有商业银行改革步伐、制定科学的货币政策和完善金融监管体制等措施.

Empirical Analysis of the Vulnerability of State-Owned Commercial Banking System and Policy Suggestion

Vulnerability of a banking system is an important issue that bears vitally on a country's financial development and security. By focusing on the vulnerability of our state-owned commercial banking system and using Logit model to analyze empirically the macro and micro factors affecting the sound operatio ns of our state-owned commercial banks, a conclusion is drawn that: 1). Macro fa ctors have greater influence on the vulnerability of our state-owned commercial banking system than micro factors; 2). Micro factors are mutually complementary. On the basis of this empirical analysis, policy suggestions are made to effecti vely control the vulnerability of our state-owned commercial banking system incl uding measures to sustain moderate economic growth, step up the reform of state-owned commercial banks, formulate a scientific monetary policy and improve finan cial supervision system.