A No‐Arbitrage Structural Vector Autoregressive Model of the UK Yield Curve* |
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Authors: | Iryna Kaminska |
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Affiliation: | International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street, N.W., Washington DC 20431, USA (e-mail: ikaminska@imf.org) |
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Abstract: | This article combines a Structural Vector Autoregression with a no‐arbitrage approach to build a multifactor Affine Term Structure Model (ATSM). The resulting No‐Arbitrage Structural Vector Autoregressive (NASVAR) model implies that expected excess returns are driven by structural macroeconomic shocks. This is in contrast with a standard ATSM, in which agents are concerned with non‐structural risks. As a simple application, we study the effects of supply, demand and monetary policy shocks on the UK yield curve. We show that all structural shocks affect the slope of the yield curve, with demand and supply shocks accounting for a large part of the time variation in bond yields. |
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Keywords: | C32 E43 E44 |
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