| 南通市经济增长的实证研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄娑,王庚. 南通市经济增长的实证研究[J]. 价值工程, 2009, 28(3): 19-22 |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄娑 王庚 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京财经大学经济学院,南京,210046;南京财经大学经济学院,南京,210046 |
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| 摘 要： | 近几年来,南通市经济实现跨越式发展,"南通现象"在学术界引起了极大的关注。选取GDP作为衡量经济增长的指标,运用ARIMA建模方法,对南通市历年GDP的数据进行了分析和预测。通过对物质资本投入,劳动要素投入,产业结构,出口贸易状况,外资利用水平和科技发展程度6个因素进行主成分回归,找出了南通市经济增长的主要驱动因素。通过研究"南通现象"希望找到南通和谐发展的本质,为我国中小城市经济的发展提供一些建议和参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 南通现象 经济增长 AKIMA 主成分回归 中小城市 |
The Empirical Study of Economic Growing for Nantong City |
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| Huang Suo,Wang Geng. The Empirical Study of Economic Growing for Nantong City[J]. Value Engineering, 2009, 28(3): 19-22 |
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| Authors: | Huang Suo Wang Geng |
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| Affiliation: | School of Economics;Nanjing University of Finance and Economics;Nanjing 210046;China |
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| Abstract: | In the recent years, the economic development of NanTong city becomes quicker and quicker, and ＇the phenomenon of NanTong＇ attracts a great deal of concern in the academic community. In this paper GDP is chosen as the indicator of economic growth, and by using the method of ARIMA it analyzes and forecasts GDP. Then, it finds out the main factors of the economic development about NanTong city, with Principal Component Regression of six factors. It hopes to provide some suggestions and references for the economic development of small and medium-sized cities by finding the essence of the harmonious development of NanTong with the study ＂the phenomenon of NanTong ＂. |
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| Keywords: | AKIMA |
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