民间资本与经济发展关联性的实证研究

近几年来，由于国家宏观调控以及适应市场的需求，民间资本的形式越来越趋于多样化，对于GDP的持续增长一直发挥着不可替代的作用。本文通过建立向量自回归模型来探究民间资本与GDP的关联性。之后选取GDP和民间资本从1982年到2012年的数据进行实证分析，通过Granger因果关系检验，得出存在从民间资本到GDP的单向Granger因果关系，通过建立VAR模型进一步做脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析。最后给出相应的结论。

Empirical Analysis on the Relevance of Private Capital and Economic Development in China

In recent years, the form of folk capital diversifies due to the demand of the national c control and the development of the market, it has been playing an irreplaceable role in sustained growth in GDP. This article explores the relevance of private capital and the GDP through the establishment of vector autoregressive model, then choosing the data of GDP and private capital from 1982 to 2012 to carry on the empirical analysis. Through the Granger causality test, we could conclude that there is a one-way Granger causality from GDP to private capital, further by establishing a VAR model to carry out an impulse response analysis and a variance decomposition analysis. In the end, the corresponding conclusion is given.