| 基于GM(1,1)模型的中国快递行业收入预测分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王莲花. 基于GM(1,1)模型的中国快递行业收入预测分析[J]. 物流技术, 2012, 0(3): 84-86 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王莲花 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京物资学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 北京物资学院信息与控制研究基地(WUZI200902) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对快递行业的特点,运用GM(1,1)模型对中国2003-2010年快递行业的总收入进行模拟,对模拟结果采用了多种方法进行检验,并对未来几年的中国快递收入进行了预测。结果表明GM(1,1)模型能够很好地模拟中国快递行业收入数据,而且具有较高的模拟精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 快递行业 预测分析 GM(1,1)模型 模型验证 |
Revenue Forecast for Chinese Express Delivery Industry Based on GM(1,1) Model |
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| WANG Lian-hua. Revenue Forecast for Chinese Express Delivery Industry Based on GM(1,1) Model[J]. Logistics Technology, 2012, 0(3): 84-86 |
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| Authors: | WANG Lian-hua |
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| Affiliation: | WANG Lian-hua(Beijing Wuzi University,Beijing 101149,China) |
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| Abstract: | In view of the characteristics of the express delivery business,the paper uses the GM(1,1) model to simulate the trend of the total revenue of the Chinese express delivery industry from 2003 to 2010,tests the finding using multiple methods and forecasts the situation of the next several years.It is proven that the GM(1,1) model can sufficiently simulate the revenue data of the Chinese express delivery industry and is of rather high accuracy. |
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| Keywords: | express industry forecast and analysis GM(1,1) model model testing |
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