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Assessing Global Computable General Equilibrium Model Validity Using Agricultural Price Volatility
Authors:Ernesto  Valenzuela  Thomas W  Hertel  Roman  Keeney  Jeffrey J  Reimer
Institution:Ernesto Valenzuela is a consultant at The World Bank;Roman Keeney and Thomas Hertel are, respectively, assistant professor and professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University;and Jeff Reimer is an assistant professor in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Oregon State University.
Abstract:Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are commonly used for global agricultural market analysis. Concerns are sometimes raised, however, about the quality of their output since key parameters may not be econometrically estimated and little emphasis is generally given to model assessment. This article addresses the latter issue by developing an approach to validating CGE models based on the ability to reproduce observed price volatility in agricultural markets. We show how patterns in the deviations between model predictions and validation criteria can be used to identify the weak points of a model and guide development of improved specifications with firmer empirical foundations.
Keywords:agricultural trade  price transmission  simulation models  validation
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