我国通货膨胀过程的社会福利成本度量与经验分析

通过利用1994年至2006年之间的我国GDP、M1和名义利率的季度数据,采用协整检验和回归系数估计方法,获得我国长期货币需求函数,在此基础上对我国通货膨胀的社会福利成本进行了实证分析。实证结果表明,我国较高的通货膨胀率会带来比较大的福利成本,因此,当前通胀压力较大的时期,采取适当的宏观调控措施,将通货膨胀率控制在3%以下的低水平状态。

Analysis on Measure and Experience of Social Welfare Cost under China's Inflation

According to quarter data of GDP,M1 and nominal interest rate from 1994 to 2006,we can achieve long-term currency demand function of China by estimating methods of cointegration test and regression coefficient,correspondingly,empirically analyze social welfare cost of our inflation.The analysis shows that our country's higher inflation rate will bring greater welfare cost.Hence,during the period of heavy inflation pressure,the government will take appropriate macro-controlling measures to keep the inflation rate under 3 percent.