China's Demographic Destiny and Its Economic Implications

China appears to be at the edge of an historic demographic transition, setting the country on a path to grow old before it becomes prosperous. This paper presents a detailed picture of the current population dynamic and analyzes the implications for economic prospects. The results indicate that China is not yet at the stage of development where population changes matter a great deal for economic growth. But when that time comes, perhaps in a decade or so, demographic changes will have a profound influence not only on economic growth but on China’s global competitiveness. JEL Classification J100, J190, O530