我国经济周期波动的成因及潜在因素

改革开放以来,我国宏观经济的长期走势看好,但在短期内呈现周期性波动。必须把握这种波动性从而避免经济波动大起大落。按照实际产出的构成成分(居民消费、政府消费、投资、净出口),使用方差分解法。从全期样本和滚动样本两方面探讨我国经济周期波动性减弱的成因,并针对可能扩大经济周期波动的潜在因素提出相应的对策建议。

Reasons and Potential Factors of Chinese Economic Fluctuation

Since reform and opening-up,the trend of China's macro-economic is upward in long-term,but in short- term is periodic fluctuated.Probing into the cause of this kind of fluctuation reducing can benifit to avoid economic fluctuation radically,and to make macro-economic grow better and faster.According to the components of real out- put(household consumption,government consumption,investment,net exports),we probe into the cause of the allevi- ation of China's economic fluctuation since reform and opening-up by...