业绩预告披露与盈余管理研究

盈余管理存在的根本原因在于投资者与管理层之间的信息不对称。业绩预告作为上市公司未来经营成果、财务状况与现金流量的预测,在很大程度上会影响投资者对上市公司的评估及其投资决策。从业绩预告披露的特征方面出发,研究业绩预告披露与盈余管理之间的关系,包括业绩预告的性质、预告精确度、预告误差分别与盈余管理程度的关系,结果发现：发布业绩预告的公司,盈余管理水平更高。预告精确度以及预告期间与预测当期盈余管理水平正相关,预测误差与盈余管理水平负相关。当消息类型不同的时候,预测的强制性与否以及＂变脸＂对盈余管理水平的影响不同。结论支持了上市公司财务报告迎合业绩预告披露的说法。

Earnings Forecasts and Earnings Management Performance

Since the existence of earnings management is information asymmetry between investors and management.Earnings forecast,to a large extent will affect the assessment of investors in listed companies and their investment decisions.This paper disclosures notice from the performance characteristics.The study notices the relationship between earnings forecast and earnings management,Including notice of the nature of the performance,notice of accuracy,notice errors of the relationship with earnings management.The results shows that: notice issued performance of the company,higher levels of earnings management.Notice and the notice of the accuracy of earnings management during the current and forecast levels are related to the level of forecast errors and negative earnings management.When the message type a different time,predict whether or not mandatory and the "change" of the different levels of earnings management.Conclusion supports the results of listed company financial reports meet the notice of the earnings forecast.