环境规制对碳效率的多重路径及门槛模型研究

从结构升级及效率提升两大维度刻画环境规制对碳排放效率的关系及作用机制,研究环境规制是如何提升城市碳排放效率的。基于2006—2019年中国279个城市层面数据,采用非参数百分位自抽法,逐步回归法、Sobel检验和交互调节模型验证影响路径,并利用门槛模型探讨不同路径下环境规制的调节作用。结果表明：(1)环境规制促进城市碳排放效率提升,但存在区域异质性;(2)环境规制通过促进产业结构高度化、绿色技术创新和能源效率升级提高碳排放效率,产业结构合理化及产业集聚“遮掩”了环境规制的激励作用;(3)环境规制对提升碳排放效率存在多种门槛效应和调节机制。发挥环境规制对碳排放效率结构和效率的双重激励时,需注意不同路径的维度问题,以提高准度,把握力度。

Study on multiple paths and threshold model of environmental regulation on carbon efficiency

Paper describes the relationship and mechanism of environmental regulations on carbon emission efficiency from the two dimensions of structural upgrading and efficiency improvement, and studies how environmental regulations improve urban carbon emission efficiency. Based on the data of 279 cities in China from 2006 to 2019, non-parametric percentile self-extraction method, stepwise regression method, Sobel test and interactive regulation model were used to verify the influence paths, and threshold model was used to explore the regulatory effects of environmental regulations under different paths. The results show that: Firstly, environmental regulations promote urban carbon emission efficiency, but there is regional heterogeneity; Secondly, environmental regulations improve carbon emission efficiency by promoting industrial structure upgrading, green technology innovation and energy efficiency upgrading, industrial structure rationalization and industrial agglomeration "mask" the incentive effect of environmental regulations; Thirdly, environmental regulations have various threshold effects and regulatory mechanisms for improving carbon emission efficiency. When giving play to the dual incentives of environmental regulation on carbon emission efficiency structure and efficiency, it is necessary to pay attention to the dimensions of different paths in order to improve the accuracy and grasp the intensity.Key words: Environmental regulation; Carbon emission efficiency;