中国农村扶贫资金投入与贫困减少的经验分析

本文分别以中国官方贫困线和国际贫困线为标准,利用向量自回归模型就中国政府的农村扶贫资金投入和贫困减少的长、短期关系和Granger因果关系进行了经验研究。结果表明农村扶贫资金对农村贫困减少具有短期的促进作用,但效果不显著。从长期看扶贫资金抑制了农村贫困的减少,但这两者之间不存在Granger因果关系;经济增长与贫困之间的关系比较复杂,经济增长在减少农村贫困人口的同时,加重了贫困深度指数和贫困强度指数。因此,进一步完善农村扶贫资金运行机制、提高扶贫项目的瞄准性,对于解决中国农村贫困问题具有重大意义。

The Effect of Rural Poverty Alleviation Funds on Poverty:An Empirical Study of China

By the standards of China's official poverty line and international poverty line,this paper adopts VAR econometric methodology to estimate the effects of poverty alleviation funds on poverty both in the long run and short run,and makes Granger test.The results show that,in the short run,poverty alleviation funds have positive but weak impacts on poverty reduction,and in the long run they seem to have negative effects on poverty reduction but there exists no Granger causality.The effects of economic growth o...