中国制造业空间分布影响因素的实证研究

利用2002年度中国省区/行业数据,本文估计了一个包含比较优势、新经济地理、知识外溢以及地方保护主义的中国制造业布局影响因素模型。回归结果支持了上述各种力量在制造业分布中所发挥的作用,并且特别强调了新经济地理和知识溢出在集聚经济过程中的因果累积循环性质。研究表明,对外开放、城市化、工业基础的增强、交通设施的改善和地方保护主义的削弱将非常有利于中国制造业的进一步集聚,知识溢出的作用也同样不容忽视。

An Empirical Analysis to the Determinants of China’s Manufacture Geographic Distribution

In this paper, we estimate a model concerning determinants of China’s manufacture Agglomeration, which is established on the two-dimension data of province/industry and contains comparative advantage, new economic geography, knowledge spillovers and regional protection. Regression results support the assumption that the above factors plays an important role in manufacture distribution, and stress the circular and cumulative causation of new economic geography and knowledge spillovers in the agglomeration process. The study shows that such factors are all in favor of China’s manufacture agglomeration as opening, urbanization, the weakening of regional protection and the development of industry and traffic, and the function of knowledge spillovers or learning effects can not be ignored as well.