设计洪水计算方法研究进展与评价

设计洪水是确定水利工程建设规模及制定运行管理策略的重要依据,国内外已经开展了大量深入的研究。本文系统总结了国内外洪水频率分析方法,包括抽样方法、分布线型、经验频率公式、参数估计方法、设计洪水过程线、历史洪水、区域洪水频率、PMP/PMF、分期和梯级水库设计洪水等方面的研究进展,重点阐述了中国近30年来的主要研究成果,并讨论了存在的主要问题和不足。从四个方面归纳了当前设计洪水研究的前沿与热点问题:即多变量设计洪水计算、非一致性洪水频率分析、基于水文物理机制的洪水频率分析和设计洪水不确定性研究,并展望了中国设计洪水计算未来的研究重点和方向。

Advances and assessment on design flood estimation methods

Design flood provides an important basis for determining the construction size and operation strat-egy of water conservancy project. A state art review of flood frequency analysis, including sampling meth-od, distribution type, empirical frequency formula, parameter estimation method, design flood hydrograph, historical flood, regional flood frequency, PMP/PMF, seasonal design flood and design flood for cascade res-ervoirs are systematically summarized. The main research progress in recent three decades of China is em-phasized and problem existing in the present study is discussed. The frontier and hot issues of design flood are briefly classified into four aspects, including multivariate design flood estimation, nonstationary flood fre-quency analysis, flood frequency analysis based on physical mechanism of hydrological processes and uncer-tainty analysis of design flood. Finally, the research emphasis and directions of design flood estimation in China are suggested.