上市公司财务困境预测模型——基于会计信息和公司治理信息的实证研究

以2005年上半年沪深两市中首次被ST的52家公司和52家非ST公司为研究对象,同时利用这些上市公司的会计信息和公司治理信息来构建财务困境预测模型。研究结果表明(:1)公司治理特征对公司陷入财务困境具有显著的影响(;2)公司治理信息不能为财务信息所覆盖。这一方面说明,公司治理结构对公司的财务安全具有重要的影响,因此当前应进一步完善公司治理结构;另一方面也说明今后在研究和构建财务困境预测模型的时候,不仅要考虑会计信息,还应考虑公司治理信息等,以构建出更为有效的预测模型。

Forecasting Model of Listed Company's Financial Distress:An Empirical Study Based on Accounting Information and Corporate Governance Information

This article takes the 52 ST companies and another 52 non-ST companies in Shanghai and Shenzheng stock exchange in the first half of 2005 as the research object.It constructs forecasting model of financial distress with the accounting information and corporate governance information from these listed companies.The research demonstrates that: 1) corporate governance features exerts distinct influences on a company's financial distress;2) corporate governance information is not covered by financial information.This means that: 1) corporate governance structure imposes great impact on a company's financial security and therefore the structure of corporate governance shall be further improved;2) in the future study and construction of forecasting model of financial distress,both the accounting information and corporate governance information shall be considered so as to construct a more effective forecasting model.