教育结构与经济增长后劲的动态关联关系研究

文章利用中国30个省份1998-2012年的面板数据,建立内生分布滞后联立方程模型,研究了教育结构和经济增长后劲的动态关联关系。研究发现:教育结构对经济增长后劲在即期有显著的正的影响,之后转变为微弱的负影响,其累积影响始终为正;经济增长后劲在即期对教育结构有显著的正的影响,之后逐年下降收敛于0,其累积影响始终为正。研究结论表明,高等教育扩张并未对经济增长起到实质性的支撑作用。因此,应继续深化教育体制改革,强化人力资本与物质资本、技术等的耦合,努力实现教育与经济增长的协同发展。

A Study on the Dynamic Nexus between Educational Structure and Economic Growth Momentum

This paper incorporates the endogenous distribution-lag model into a system of equations to study the dynamic nexus of educational structure and economic growth momentum by using a panel data from 30 provinces in China during the year of 1998 go 2010. The analysis shows that the educational structure has a significant positive instant effect on economic growth momentum, then it turns to be a weak negative influence, the cumulative effect is always positive. The economic growth momentum has a remarkable positive instant impact on educational structure, and then it falls down gradually until zero, the cumulative effect is always positive. The resuhs indicate that the expansion of higher education does not play a substantial supporting role in the economic development. Therefore, China should continue to deepen the reform of education system, strengthen the combination of human capital, physical capital and technology, and strive to achieve coordinated development of education and economic growth.