央行货币政策操作政策拐点与开关函数的测定

货币政策操作是政府对经济进行宏观调控的重要手段。不同的国家和地区、不同的经济发展时期,其货币政策的运用效果及特点存在明显的差异。赵进文、闵捷(2005)的研究结果表明:在1993年第1季度至2004年第2季度期间,我国货币政策操作在效果上表现出明显的非对称性,具有很强的非线性特征。在此基础上,本文首先通过Terasvirta检验法判定了央行货币政策操作开关函数的类型,之后基于先进而复杂的T-O-O网格点搜索法,测定了我国货币政策操作的政策拐点与开关函数的具体形式。

Measurement for the Breakpoints and Transition Functions for Monetary Policy Operation of China's Center Bank

The operation of monetary policy is an important instrument for the government to control the economy on the macro scope. Different country, different region and different period of economic progress have great difference in their impact and characteristics of the monetary policy. The research of Zhao jinwen and Minjie (2005) indicates that the effect of China's monetary policy shows an obvious asymmetry and strong nonlinearity during the period of the first quarter of 1993 to the second quarter of 2004. On the basis of the previous research, this paper determined the type of the transition function for the central bank monetary policy operation by the Tersvirta test in the first place. Then, the breakpoints of China's monetary policy operation and specific form of the transition function will be determined through the advanced and complicated T-O-O grid search. The conclusion has significant and direct implications for the improvement of China's macro-control policy and the persistent, fast, healthy and harmonious development of national economy.