Project evaluation by potential tax reform

Shadow prices are derived for small open economies with several production sectors experiencing constant returns to scale. Small projects affect the balance of trade, domestic prices (of non-traded goods and factors), and sector scales. Only domestic prices affect welfare, and only if there is not ‘domestic price equalization’. Generally, a project's net benefits depend upon the potential tax (and tariff) reform made possible (or necessary) through the balance of trade effect. Border prices are right for traded goods, but domestic good shadow pricing requires knowing the direction of at least one reversible available tax reform, and presuming optimality with respect to available reforms.