货币“迷失”与我国货币、汇率政策选择

考察1985～2003年我国货币资金的“迷失”现象,可发现这种货币的迷失本身是由货币供给的内生性导致的,尤其是由于很大一部分迷失的货币没有进入实体经济部门、没有形成有效的货币供给导致的。我国大量存在的货币资金迷失现象动摇了蒙代尔—弗莱明模型和我国货币政策关于货币供给外生性的假设前提,这一方面使得蒙代尔不可能三角不再绝对成立,另一方面也削弱了我国货币政策实施的效果,货币政策当局在制定货币政策时有必要对此有所关注。

Missing Money and Policy Choice on Currency, Exchange Rate

Through the study on the missing money during 1985 and 2003 in China, we can find out that it is caused by endogenousness of currency supply, especially because a large amount of missing money didn't enter the economic entity department, and without a effective supply of currency. The missing money in China has shaken the Mundell-Flemyng Model and the hypothesis about the currency supply enodogenousness of currency policy. On one hand, it make the Mundell impossible triangle no more absolutely true; on the other hand, it weaken the efficiency of our currency policy practice, and it should draw the attention of decision making department.