出口退税与就业增进——基于我国数据的协整研究

在一个出口决策模型的基础之上,建立了一个出口退税的就业影响模型。并采用我国1985-2009年的数据,研究了出口退税政策对我国就业水平的影响,结果显示:我国的出口退税政策显著促进了国内就业的增长。进一步把出口退税分解为增值税退还与关税退还两部分,研究了不同类别出口退税对国内就业的影响,结果仍然稳定。结果同时表明:国内投资、FDI以及汇率贬值显著促进了国内就业的增长,而技术水平的提升则抑制了国内就业的增长,这一结果说明,我国的技术发展选择的仍然是劳动节约型而非资本节约型技术进步。

Tax Rebates and Employment: A Cointegration Study Based on China’s Export Data

Based on an export decision process,this paper establishes a mod-el to study the employment impact of export tax rebates.Using China’s export tax rebates data of 1985-2009,the paper examines the effect of China’s export tax rebate policy on employment levels,and the results show that China’s ex-port tax rebate policy significantly promoted the growth of employment.It fur-ther decomposes the export rebates into tariff rebates and VAT rebates to study the impact of different categories of export tax rebates on domestic employment,and the results remained stable.Results also show that domestic investment,FDI,and exchange rate depreciation significantly promoted the growth of employment,but technology improvement restrained the growth of employment.Results show that China’s technology development is still the labor-saving rather than capi-tal-saving technological progress.