劳动力转移过程中的高储蓄、高投资和中国经济增长

中国的转轨经济具有独特的增长模式,其典型特征就是持续的高储蓄率和高投资率。本文从劳动力转移的角度,解释了这种模式赖以产生的基础。我们认为,剩余劳动力由农业向工业(工业化)、由农村向城市(城市化)、由国有向非国有(市场化)的持续转移是我国经济能够长期、高速增长的关键,而高储蓄率和高投资率既是这种增长模式的必然结果,也是劳动力得以持续转移乃至这种增长模式得以维持的关键原因。为了防止效率低下的金融部门阻碍劳动力的转移,在开放经济条件下,引入纯粹金融意义的国际直接投资也就成为了必然。与此同时,本国金融部门也将持有一个规模逐步扩大的外汇储备。本文的另一个重要结论是,中国经济的增长和波动是统一的。尽管其中的机制有别于真实经济周期理论,但是,“中性”依然应该作为宏观经济政策的基本出发点。

High Saving Rate, High Investment Rate and Chinese Economic Growth During Labour Transition

Sustaining high saving rate and high investment rate may be the most two intricate phenomena in the course of high-speed Chinese economic growth. By constructing a growth model in which labour transition play pivotal role, and then testing it by a vector auto-regression model (VAR), we shows that the transition of actually unemployed labour from agriculture to industury (industrialization), from rural area to city (urbanization), from state-owend enterprise to private sector (marketization), has contributed substantially to Chinese growth. As to high saving rate and high investment rate, they are just the natural results of labour transition and also the impetus by which the transition can be sustained. But if we consider inefficient domestic financial sector, the transformation of saving to investment and also labour transition may be terminated. Therefor, international exchange of risk between demestic and foreign financial sectors, i.e. the former exporting safe capital by holding official foreign exchange reserves while importing risky capital through direct foreign investment, is the key to economic growth.