广西CPI波动偏高的原因分析

统计数据表明,广西CPI波动大于全国的平均波动水平。从时间序列角度分析,1978年以来,影响广西年度CPI定基指数的具体因素主要有广西固定资产投资总额、广西各项存款年末余额、广西进出口差额、广西存货增加额和政府消费等五个变量,这五个变量可以解释广西CPI定基指数的95.6%的变差。1990—2009年的20年间,广西的CPI波动幅度大于全国的主要原因有两个:一是固定资产投资的波动幅度大于全国平均水平,二是存货增加的波动幅度大于全国平均水平。

Analysis on the Reasons of Wilder CPI Fluctuation in Guangxi

Statistical data show that the CPI fluctuation degree in Guangxi is wilder than the national average degree. A time series alalysis finds the variables affecting tbe annual CPI fixed base index from 1978 in Guangxi include the total investment in fixed assets, balance of deposits, balance of imports and exports, stock accrual and government consumption. This five variables decide 95.6 pecent of the change balance of the CPI fluctuation. During the period from 1990 to 2009, the resons why Guangxi＇s CPI fluctuated more wildly than the national average mainly lied in two aspects： the investmenl fluctuation in fixed assets was wilder than the national average; the stock accrual fluctuation was wilder than the national average.