人民币汇率的均衡与失调

人民币汇率波动趋势表现出了"U"型特征,推动其升值的主要因素是经常项目盈余导致的净对外资产余额的不断增加、FDI资本的大量流入和贸易品部门劳动生产率的较快提高。人民币均衡汇率在1985年～1989年表现为高估,在1990年～2009年表现为低估。人民币均衡汇率低估具有逐渐收敛的特征,从而人民币均衡汇率继续升值的空间已经很小了。人民币汇率机制的完善不仅要考虑到影响汇率的主要因素,也要考虑潜在因素。

The Equilibrium and Misalignment of RMB Exchange Rate

Based on data from 1985 to 2009 of 17 countries(regions) with the behavior equilibrium exchange rate theory and the co-integration theory,this paper empirically researches the RMB’s equilibrium exchange rate and its misalignment.The RMB’s fluctuation trend of permanent equilibrium exchange rate shows the "U" shaped feature,and the main driving factors are the rapidly enlarged net foreign asset position,the massive inflow of FDI,and the fast productivity growth within the trade sector.The RMB equilibrium exchange rate was overestimated from 1985 to 1989,and underestimated from 1990 to 2009.The underestimation of RMB equilibrium exchange rate shows the gradual convergence feature and the appreciation space for RMB equilibrium exchange rate is very small.The influence from Non FDI on the fluctuation of RMB equilibrium exchange rate is not obvious,but with large potential influence.The consummation of RMB exchange rate mechanism should take both the main factors and the potential factors into consideration.