基于灰色预测法的福建农村居民人均消费研究

扩大内需,启动消费,是拉动国民经济增长的一个重要途径。随着农民生活水平的提高,农村消费市场日益成为一个新的消费增长点,本文通过对1993—2008年福建省农村居民人均实际消费进行分析,利用灰色预测法对福建省农村居民人均实际总消费支出和结构比例、人均名义总消费支出和结构比例的未来趋势进行预测分析。以期为转变消费观念、开拓福建省农村消费市场、制定相关消费政策等方面提供相关决策依据。

Prediction on Per Capita Consumption of Rural Residents in Fujian by Grey-Prediction-Method

Expanding Domestic Demand and stimulate consumption are the key to developing our national economy.With the increasingly improvement of the production level,igniting rural consumption market,and cultivating it into the new focus-spot of consumption to promote rural consumption increase stably.In this paper,we analyze per capita consumption of rural residents in Fujian province.At last,we predict the future trends of rural residents' per capita living consumption expenditure and consumption structure by using the method of gay pediction.it can provide reference for the department changing consumption ideas,developing rural consumption market and making relevant consumption policies.