地方财政支出对经济增长影响的空间计量分析——辽宁省为例

本文基于2005～2007年辽宁省十四个市面板数据,采用空间计量经济模型,并结合人均GDP水平、财政支出水平的Moran散点图和显著性水平图定量地研究了其财政支出对经济增长的影响。结果显示：现阶段,辽宁省基本建设支出与政府行政支出对我省经济增长起到了促进作用,且政府行政支出对我省经济增长的促进作用高于基本建设支出所产生的促进作用,而民生性支出对我省经济增长的影响效应则为负;同时也得出我省人口数已经达到规模不经济状态的结论。最后,基于以上分析,提出政策建议。

A Spatial Econometric Analysis of the Government Financial Expenditure on Economic Growth Effects-With Cases from Liaoning Province

Based on Liaoning Province 14 City’s panel data between2005 and 2007,using spatial econometric models,combined with the level of per capita GDP,the level of financial expenditure and significant Moran scatter level diagram,Quantitatively studying the effects of fiscal expenditure about economic growth.The empirical results show that：the capital expenditure and administrative expenditure has played a catalytic role on the province’s economic growth,and the impact of the government’s administrative expenditure is higher than the impact of the capital expenditures on the province’s economic growth,Then the impact of the livelihood of the people of Expenditure on of economic growth are negative in our province.but also come to the conclusion that the size of our province’s population has reached the non-state economy,finally,based on the analysis above,put forward policy recommendations.