Tracing the regional dual value chains: Measurement on the production position and evidence from China

When there is insufficient internal and external impetus for developing countries’ economy, building a domestic and international dual circulation is conducive to promoting the regional industrial growth. On the basis of regional embedded international input-output tables, this paper extends the measurement framework of production position and proposes the concept of the dual value chain, which measure production position that unifies the national and global value chains from forward and backward industrial linkages. We decompose the national and global value chains into three categories and investigate the production position characteristics of China with a multi-dimensional perspective. Consistent evidence shows that a feasible path of technological progress in optimizing the production in value chains in which technological progress plays a crucial role on the pure national value chain across the high-tech manufacturing sector, the eastern and central regions. Their posterior probabilities are 0.96, 0.21and 0.86, respectively. Moreover, the impact on the dual production is nonnegligible that the posterior probability of technological progress on the eastern and central regions is 0.40 and 0.92. In addition, the impact of the Chinese economic stimulus program and technological progress on the economic crisis has a certain moderating effect. Our proposed evaluation framework sheds new light that national value chain production can boost economic growth,and further promote the coordinated of regional industries for developing countries.