我国经常项目收支平衡与经济增长——基于BPCG模型的实证分析

20世纪90年代初以来,我国经常项目中商品贸易持续顺差,服务贸易和投资收益账户却连年逆差,这种结构不利于我国经济的持续稳定增长。本文应用国际收支约束下经济增长模型(BPCG)及其扩展形式,实证分析了1982-2005年间我国经常项目平衡约束下的经济增长率、商品贸易收支平衡约束下的经济增长率与实际增长率之间的差异,结论为经常项目平衡约束下的经济增长率比商品贸易收支平衡约束下的经济增长率要低0.5-1个百分点。

On China's Current Account Balance and Economic Growth——An Empirical Analysis Based on BPCG Model

Since the 1990s, the current account of China has appeared sustaining surplus on merchandise trade but deficit on service trade and foreign capital profits. Such an imbalance of structure counteracted plenty of merchandise trade surplus so as to affect China's steady-going economic growth. This paper, which based on an extension of balance-of-payments constrained growth model, analyzed China's growth rate under the current account balance and merchandise trade balance during 1982 to 2005. Generally speaking, the later was lower about 0.5-1 percent than the former.