中国木质林产品的出口二元边际及影响因素分析

利用联合国商品贸易数据库HS六分位编码,对1996~2014年间中国木质林产品出口的二元边际情况进行分析的结果表明:中国对美国、日本、中国香港、英国等主要贸易伙伴的出口增长来自于集约边际和扩展边际的共同作用。对二元边际的相关影响因素进行实证分析的结果表明:目的地市场规模对集约边际呈正相关关系,但对扩展边际呈现负相关关系;可变贸易成本对二元边际呈现负相关关系;多边阻力对二元边际呈现正相关关系;劳动生产率对二元边际呈现正相关关系;经济危机对集约边际几乎不构成影响,但对扩展边际有明显冲击。基于此,提出调整出口市场结构,发挥扩展边际作用;加快自由贸易进程,逐步减少贸易阻力;加大科研资本投入,提升劳动生产效率等建议。

An Analysis on the Dual Margin of China s Wood-Based Products Export and Its Affections

Based on highly disaggregated date from United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Data-base, the dual margin of China’s wood-based products’ export over the period of 1996~2014 was ana-lyzed firstly. The study found out that the growth of China’s wood-based product’s export is from dual margin. Then the factors that may influence dual margin were further evaluated. The results indicate that destination market scale has positive effect on intensive margin, but it has negative effect on ex-tensive margin. Variable trade costs have negative effect on dual margin. Multilateral resistance has positive effect on dual margin. Labor productivity has positive effect on dual margin. Economic crisis has little effect on intensive margin while it has significant impact on extensive margin. Based on the study, some suggests were put forward: first, adjust the structure of export market and make exten-sive margin play a role; second, accelerate the process of free trade and reduce trade resistance grad-ually; third, increase investment in scientific research and enhance labor productivity.