基于灰色关联分析的江西省森林公园旅游收入结构研究

以江西省境内的森林公园旅游经营收入为研究对象,运用灰色关联分析理论,系统分析了2004年~2014年江西省森林公园旅游经营收入结构特征及其动态变化,得到了有意义的结果:江西省森林公园旅游收入中,食宿收入的平均关联度最大(r=0.841 8),与旅游相关的其他收入的平均关联度最小(r=0.688 9)。门票收入的关联度呈现出先调整性增长,后较稳定下调,而后持续增加的趋势;食宿收入的关联度一直稳定下调,而后又报复性增长;娱乐收入的关联度在调整中呈现出平稳的下降趋势;而与旅游相关的其他收入在调整中呈现出不断增长的态势。基于灰色动态关联分析,提出了增加旅游服务范围、调整旅游门票价格、丰富娱乐活动特色、重视林下经济发展等建议。

Based on Grey Correlation Analysis Study on Tourism Income Structure of Forest Park in Jiangxi Province

Grey relational analysis theory was applied to analyze the features and changes of the tourism business income of forest parks from 2004 to 2014 in Jiangxi province. Meaningful results are obtained: For the tourism business income of the forest parks in Jiangxi province, accommodation in-comes are highly correlated ( r=0. 841 8) , while other kinds of tourism incomes are least correlated ( r =0. 688 9) . The correlation of tickets income showed a trend of increasing at first and then de-creased as time going on, but increased again over the last period. The correlation of accommodation income decreased at first, but then turned to increase over time. The correlation of entertainment in-come decreased steadily all the time during the adjustment period. However, the correlation of other tourism incomes increased steadily in the adjustment period. Based on the results of grey dynamic cor-relation analysis, suggestions like increase services, adjust the ticket prices, increase entertainments and emphasize the development of forest economy were proposed.