我国空气污染的区域发展趋势分析

工业化产生的环境污染,已经严重危及人们生活质量的提高。研究采用相关性分析和R/S分形方法,使用全国和东、中、西部地区1995-2011年期间的序列数据。首先,以能源消费总量为控制变量,对工业废水排放量、工业废气排放量、工业固体废物排放量与国内生产总值之间进行相关性分析,找出环境污染的主要成分是工业废气排放。然后,着重分析全国和东、中、西部地区工业废气排放量的R/S分形轨迹。实证结果表明:它们的Hurst指数均介于0和5之间,说明其工业废气排放量的未来变化呈负相关性,但它们的分维值却不同,全国和中部地区距1.5较近,说明两者的反持续性较东、西部地区弱,今后中部地区所面临的环境压力将增大,应成为重点监控对象。

Analysis of Regional Development Trend of Air Pollution in China

Environmental pollution caused by industrialization has seriously endangered the improving of people＇s life quality. The paper uses the correlation analysis and R/S fraetal method and the national and the eastern, central and western regions of sequence data for 1995-2011. In the energy consumption for the control variables, correlation analysis is used among the industrial wastewater emissions, industrial emissions, industrial solid waste emissions and GDP to identify the main component of environmental pollution. Then focus on analyzing R/S fractal trajectory of industrial emissions of the nation and the eastern, central and western regions. The results show that their Hurst index are between 0 and 5, indicating that the future change of their industrial emissions is negatively correlation, but their fractal dimension is different. The central region close at 1.5, indicating its anti-persistent than the eastern and western regions is weak. Facing the future, the central region will increase pressure on the environment, should be the focus of monitoring object.